Musk asserts that gas turbines, crucial for data centers, are sold out through 2030, with the primary constraint being superalloy castings for blades and vanes, produced by only about three global companies. He proposes deploying AI compute in space within 36 months, citing 5-10x more effective solar power without atmospheric or day/night cycle limitations. Musk also predicts most future AI will be inference, vastly outstripping training compute.
The physical supply of specialized turbine components is a binding constraint for AI data center power, pushing compute deployment to novel, high-capex solutions like space infrastructure.