The current memory upcycle, unlike past commodity-driven cycles, is uniquely propelled by sustained, multi-year AI data center buildouts from hyperscalers, with suppliers largely sold out through 2027 and market softening expected around 2028 as new fabs come online. HBM3E blended ASPs are estimated at $330-$360 in 2026, projected to rise to $500 for HBM4 in 2027, then soften to $450 for HBM4E in 2028 as supply catches up. SK Hynix leads HBM market share at 58-60%, followed by Samsung and Micron at ~20% each, while Samsung leads overall DRAM with ~40%.
Memory suppliers are securing multi-year LTAs with hyperscalers, giving them stronger pricing power and extending the upcycle beyond historical norms.