The substrate pricing cycle is proving stronger and earlier than expected, driven by capacity tightening and robust demand, with gross margins expanding across the industry. Updated modeling points to a 25% undersupply gap by 2030, up from a previous ~22% estimate, increasing confidence in long-term pricing and margin tailwinds. Supply chain checks indicate Nan Ya PCB saw BT substrate pricing jump by ~20–30% in Q2 2026, while ABF substrate pricing grew by roughly 10%.
ABF substrate supply is tightening significantly, pushing up costs for AI GPUs and ASICs, making advanced packaging a binding variable for compute capacity.