Scaling01 Analysis Suggests Chinese AI Models Overrated, Forecasts Kimi-K3 ECI at 156.35

The analysis argues that Chinese AI models are overrated on the Artificial Analysis Index compared to US models, with only 36.7% of Chinese models scoring above a fitted logit-linear regression line versus 57.5% of US models. Using a new methodology with separate trendlines for US and Chinese models, the ECI forecast for Kimi-K3 is 156.35, which is closer to its preliminary observed value of 155.53.