Vitalik Buterin observes a striking divergence between those expecting superintelligence by 2040 and detractors who view AI as normal technology, leading to incompatible worldviews on risk and progress speed. He expresses personal uncertainty about which scenario is unfolding, advocating for open-mindedness on slowdowns while criticizing power-concentrating approaches from major AI companies. Buterin supports the d/acc platform, which focuses on defensive technologies like formal verification and secure hardware, as beneficial regardless of AI's trajectory.
The AI industry remains deeply divided on superintelligence timelines and existential risks, creating fundamental uncertainty for long-term strategic planning and investment in AI development.