The top-5 semiconductor capital equipment companies' foundry/logic revenue, which decoupled from TSMC's capex in 2023-24 due to China's influence, has realigned with TSMC in 2025 and is now making new highs. This gap implies a significant acceleration in logic tool revenue during the second half of 2026 as TSMC's substantial $60-64 billion program transitions from facility shells to equipment deliveries.
TSMC's massive capital expenditure is converting into equipment orders, ensuring sustained demand for semiconductor capital equipment suppliers into 2026.