The HBM premium did not collapse

A widely cited read of Korean customs data says the HBM premium over commodity DRAM has fallen to near parity. It has not. The blended customs number averages real HBM bound for TSMC packaging, around $200,000 a kilo, with commodity stacked memory re-exported through Hong Kong. Filter to the HBM-grade flow and the premium is still multiples above commodity DRAM. It compressed from a 2025 peak as commodity DRAM rallied fivefold, but real HBM never crashed.